000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052205 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON DEC 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N85W TO 05N99W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N99W TO 10N111W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N114W TO 06N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW UNITED STATES NEAR 40N105W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 26N113W. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS CARVED OUT A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM S CALIFORNIA TO 25N140W. A BROAD ASSOCIATED 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL JETCORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 140W E-NE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 22N TO 30N. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS FEEDING UP FROM THE DEEP TROPICS SW OF THE AREA AND S OF HAWAII. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS SE OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED ON A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA...EXTENDING TO THE N TO ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS...HOWEVER...THAT MOST OF THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR OCCURS SOUTH OF 16N. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW WATERS BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT...WINDS ARE OVER THE NW PORTION AND THE N CENTRAL WATERS HAVE DROPPED JUST BELOW OUR 20 KT THRESHOLD. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL THAT COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 110W. THESE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER TIME AND ARE RESTRICTED TO W OF 130W BY 48 HOURS. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N112W EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. A SHIP OBSERVATION NW OF THE LOW RECENTLY REPORTED 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO NEAR 8-9 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20-25 KT N-NW WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF N OF 29N BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER THIS REGION INCREASING WINDS TO UP TO 30 KT BY TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SPILLING OUT JUST TO THE S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A ZONE OF NE-E WINDS WILL BE FORCED ACROSS AND THROUGH PASSES IN THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS TO THE W OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT...PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25 KT EARLY TUE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA. BY LATE TUE NIGHT...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO AROUND 20 KT IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. GIVEN THAT THESE WINDS DROP BELOW 20 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED INTO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. $$ LEWITSKY/LANDSEA