000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051538 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON DEC 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 05N77W TO 08N84W TO 05N100W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N100W TO 10N110W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N114W TO 06N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 125W AND 128W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW UNITED STATES NEAR 38N108W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 24N114W. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING S INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH HAS CARVED OUT A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH... EXTENDING FROM S CALIFORNIA TO 26N140W. A BROAD ASSOCIATED 70-100 KT UPPER LEVEL JETCORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 140W E-NE TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO FROM 17N TO 27N. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS FEEDING UP FROM THE DEEP TROPICS SW OF THE AREA AND S OF HAWAII. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS SE OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED ON A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA...EXTENDING TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW WATERS BETWEEN 1038 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 45N137W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT...FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE OVER THE NW PORTION AND THE N CENTRAL WATERS AS MEASURED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL AS REPORTED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE WATERS N OF 27N. EXPECT THE NW SWELL TO GRADUALLY DECAY TO 9 FT AND ONLY COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 120W IN 24 HOURS...THEN FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W IN 48 HOURS...WITH THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE TO THE AREA FROM 14N TO 20N W OF 130W BY THAT SAME TIME. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N111W EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. A SHIP OBSERVATION NW OF THE LOW RECENTLY REPORTED 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELIEVED TO BE BETWEEN 8-10 FT IN MERGING SW AND NW SWELL IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20-25 KT N-NW WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER THIS REGION INCREASING WINDS TO UP TO 30 KT BY TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SPILLING OUT JUST TO THE S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A ZONE OF NE-E WINDS WILL BE FORCED ACROSS AND THROUGH PASSES IN THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS TO THE W OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT...PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25 KT EARLY TUE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA. BY LATE TUE NIGHT...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO AROUND 20 KT IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ LEWITSKY