000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051007 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON DEC 05 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND ENTERS THE EPAC NEAR 09N84W TO 09N87W TO 05N100W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO LOW PRES 09N110W TO 07N119W TO 08N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 126W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW U.S. NEAR 38N108W TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 24N114W. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING S INTO WRN SIDE OF TROUGH HAS CARVED OUT A WWD EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE SRN CALIFORNIA TO 28N141W. A BROAD ASSOCIATED 65-95 KT UPPER LEVEL JETCORE EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 140W ENE ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...BETWEEN 18N AND 26N. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW IS FEEDING FROM THE DEEP TROPICS SW OF THE AREA AND S OF HAWAII TO THE E-NE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS SE OF THE TROUGH...CENTERED ON A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION...EXTENDING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW WATERS BETWEEN 1040 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N138W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT...FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE OVER THE NW PORTION AND THE N CENTRAL WATERS AS MEASURED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE RUNNING 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL AS REPORTED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE WATERS N OF 27N. EXPECT THE NW SWELL TO GRADUALLY DECAY TO 9 FT AND ONLY COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 130W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W BY 48 HOURS...WITH THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE TO ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY THAT TIME. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 09N110W EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. MODERATE SCATTERED ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM NE OF THE CENTER. A 0058 UTC WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 210 NM IN THE N SEMICIRCLE...AND EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SEAS TO 9 FT. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20-25 KT N-NW WINDS BLOWING THROUGH MUCH OF THE LENGTH OF THE GULF TONIGHT HAVE SHIFTED INTO S PORTIONS...FROM 21N TO 27N...BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TIGHTEN AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OVER THIS REGION INCREASING WINDS TO UP TO 30 KT BY TUE MORNING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SPILLING OUT JUST TO THE S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A ZONE OF NELY WINDS WILL BE FORCED ACROSS AND THROUGH PASSES IN THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS TO THE W OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE GULF TUE AND TUE NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25 KT TUE MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE AREA. BY 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CHANCE OF MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...AND GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO AROUND 20 KT IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. $$ STRIPLING