000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050300
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 06N77W TO 07N81W TO 05N96W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 05N96W TO 08N106W 
THEN RESUMES FROM 08N112W TO 06N120W TO 09N129W THEN RESUMES 
FROM 09N133W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 107W AND 109W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UNITED STATES FOUR 
CORNERS REGION NEAR 37N109W TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO A 
BASE NEAR 28N140W. A WIDE AND BROAD ASSOCIATED 80-100 KT UPPER 
LEVEL JETCORE IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR N OF 26N E OF 125W. 
ELSEWHERE ALOFT N OF 12N...MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
FEEDING UP FROM THE DEEP TROPICS SW OF THE AREA AND S OF HAWAII 
TO THE NE-E ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS 
NEAR 08N87W WITH NE-E FLOW S OF 12N AND W OF THIS FEATURE. 
MAINLY DRY AND STABLE AIR IS NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...1010 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08.5N109W 
MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT...WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH FROM 11N108W 
TO 06N111W. CONVECTION IS AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. 
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 150 NM IN 
THE N SEMICIRCLE...AND EARLIER ALTIMETER PASSES SHOWED SEAS TO 9 
FT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 09N113W IN 24 HOURS...THEN TO 
NEAR 09N117W IN 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AREA OF 
ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN THE W 
PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 12N130W TO 08N132W WITH NO DEEP 
CONVECTION NOTED. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE 20 KT WINDS W 
OF THIS TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS OVER THE NW WATERS BETWEEN 1042 MB HIGH 
PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 46N136W AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT...FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE OVER THE NW 
PORTION AND THE N CENTRAL WATERS AS MEASURED BY EARLIER ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEAS ARE UP TO 12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL AS REPORTED BY SEVERAL SHIPS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN 
THE WATERS N OF 24N. THE NORTHERLY SWELL SURROUNDS THE AREAS OF 
FRESH TRADES ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW HALF OF THE WATERS. EXPECT 
THE SWELL TO GRADUALLY DECAY TO 9 FT AND ONLY COVER THE AREA 
FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 130W...AND FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 
130W BY 48 HOURS...WITH THE AREA OF FRESH WINDS SHRINKING IN 
COVERAGE TO ACROSS THIS SAME AREA BY THAT TIME.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE GULF FROM 
23N TO 29N BETWEEN WEAK RIDGING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA AND TROUGHING OVER NW MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRES 
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS OVER THIS 
REGION INCREASING WINDS TO UP TO 30 KT BY 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL 
ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-10 FT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND 
SPILLING OUT JUST TO THE S OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AN AREA OF 
THESE WINDS WILL BE FORCED THROUGH PASSES IN THE NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND INTO THE OPEN PACIFIC WATERS TO THE W 
OF THE PENINSULA BY MON NIGHT. GUIDANCE FROM A LOCAL RESEARCH
STUDY INDICATES CLOSE TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS 
BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A 
POTENTIAL WARNING EVENT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP TO 20-25 KT 
EARLY TUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO N OF 
THE AREA. BEYOND 48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CHANCE OF 
MINIMAL GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY MID WEEK FOLLOWING 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT IN AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
LEWITSKY