000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N83W TO 06N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
07N96W. ITCZ FROM 07N96W TO 05N103W TO 09N120W TO 08N132W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO 23N120W. 
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY HAS ROUNDED THE BASE OF THROUGH AND 
LIFTED OUT TO THE NE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ALLOWING THE 
UPPER TROUGH TO SLOW AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT 
STALLED AND WEAKENED AS WELL...AND EXTENDS FROM FROM NEAR THE 
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AS 
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. 

FOR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT NW FLOW AT SAN FELIPE OVER 
THE FAR NW GULF IS AN INDICATION OF HOW MUCH THE FRESH NW FLOW 
BEHIND THE FRONT HAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS THE 
LOWER ATMOSPHERE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF MAY RESULT 
IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

W OF 110W...SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ALTIMETER AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE PAST 12 HOURS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG N 
WINDS PERSISTING MAINLY N OF 25N W OF 120W. THIS FLOW WILL 
DIMINISH AND VEER MORE NE TO E THROUGH 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES N 
OF THE AREA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND DRIFTS SE. THIS WILL ALSO 
MAINTAIN FRESH NE TRADES BETWEEN 12N TO 20N W OF 125W. NW AND N 
SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 12 FT WITH PERIODS OF 10 TO 12 SECONDS.

1010 MB LOW PRES PERSISTS NEAR 07N96W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM 12Z ALONG WITH EARLIER WINDSAT DATA 
SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS N OF THE LOW PRES WITHIN 120 NM. 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE 
LOW THROUGH 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW WILL PERSIST 
AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT SHIFT W AROUND 10 KT. THIS IS 
PLAUSIBLE THROUGH 48 HOURS GIVEN THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO 
INTO THE FAVORABLE SE PORTION OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG 
115W. THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES BEYOND THAT...WITH THE LOW 
LIKELY WEAKENING. A LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS PREVENTING 
ANY MAJOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THIS LOW PRES AREA.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST 
BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ANOTHER 24 HOURS 
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 
20 KT LATER IN THE DAY ON SUN. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ENHANCE TO N-NE 
FLOW CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONGEST DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW NLY WINDS AROUND 
20 KT FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PANAMA TO 07N...LIKELY MIXING A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WIND 
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS FRESH NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. 

$$
STRIPLING/CHRISTENSEN