000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE EPAC NEAR 09N84W TO 06N91W WHERE 
IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N95W TO 
06N103W TO 10N117W TO 08N133W TO BEYOND 05N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NE 
PACIFIC WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. CENTERED NEAR 
34N114W. THIS LOW IS BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE PARENT UPPER 
TROUGH AND IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT HAS 
BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 28N111W ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND INTO THE PACIFIC TO NEAR 21N119W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS FOLLOW 
THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY N TO NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS TO 14 FT. WHILE THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL 
GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BECOMING FRESH AND SHIFTING BODILY 
WESTWARD...THE SEAS WILL REACH 10 FT OR MORE OVER MUCH OF THE 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES OVER WESTERN 
WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 13N AND W OF 130W. 

THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE EJECTED OUT TO 
THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS NEW SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS INTO THE 
BACKSIDE OF THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE 
LOW PRES ACROSS N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT U.S. 
WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT W BY SAT NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRES QUICKLY 
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE 
NNW WINDS 20-25 KT THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY 
SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 8 FT BY MON MORNING. 

A SURFACE LOW LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07N95W WITH AN 
ESTIMATED PRES OF 1009 MB. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AT 
10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND 
THEN WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH BY SUN. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED PRIMARILY WITHIN 150-180 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW 
CENTER WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT TONIGHT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...BUT N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST 
BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ANOTHER 24 HOURS 
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SAT AFTERNOON AND THEN DROP TO LESS THAN 
20 KT SUN. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL ENHANCE TO N-NE 
FLOW CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO 
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WINDS LIKELY STRONGEST DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW NLY WINDS AROUND 
20 KT FLOWING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA AND THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PANAMA TO 07N...LIKELY MIXING A GOOD PORTION OF THIS WIND 
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS FRESH NLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. 

$$
STRIPLING