000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 02 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
08N94W TO 06N103W. ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N103W TO 10N118W 
TO BEYOND 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION LIES NEAR THE 
AXIS.
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN STREAM PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH A DEEP 
TROUGH OVER NW MEXICO AND THE INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. AHEAD OF 
RIDGING ALONG 135W. THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT TO A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 27N112W INTO 
THE PACIFIC TO 24N118W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER FORECAST 
WATERS BY FRI. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT 
ACCOMPANIED BY N SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 19 FT 
REPORTED BY SHIP WFLG NEAR 32N122W AT 0000 UTC. WHILE THE AREA 
OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO FRESH AND 
SHIFT WESTWARD...THE SEAS WILL REACH 10 FT OR MORE OVER MUCH OF 
THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES 
BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES OVER 
WESTERN WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 13N AND W OF 135W. 

THE FRONT IS ALSO PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 
29N110W TO 27N112W. A 1734 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT SW 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS FAR S AS 26N. FRESH NW WINDS LIE 
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE OBSERVATION STATION AT SAN FELIPE 
REACHING 25 KT AT 1800 UTC AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT 
WILL DISSIPATE FRI AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY FRI 
EVENING.

A SURFACE LOW LIES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N94W 
WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1009 MB. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
W AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND INTENSIFY 
SLIGHTLY. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY WITHIN 
150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 
FT ON SAT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 1556 ASCAT PASS MISSED THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BUT CAPTURED 20 KT WINDS AS FAR AWAY AS 12N98W. 
SINCE THAT TIME...HIGH PRES IN E CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED. THIS HAS COMPROMISED THE PRES 
GRADIENT AND DECREASED THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS S 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER...FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW WILL CONTINUE 
N OF 14N INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WITH THE ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WINDS ARE 
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

$$
SCHAUER/CHRISTENSEN