000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011559
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 01 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N83W TO 07N89W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
08N92W TO 06N97W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06N97W TO 09N115W 08N127W TO 
BEYOND 10N140W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER PATTERN N OF 32N HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A 
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NW MEXICO AHEAD OF RIDGING 
BUILDING ALONG 137W. THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING UPPER SUPPORT TO A 
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA TO 26N118W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES 
SOUTH...REACHING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 
ROUGHLY 18N117W BY EARLY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS FOLLOW THE 
FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY N SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 15 
FT PER MARINE GUIDANCE. THE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL ENVELOP 
MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 20N THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING 
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES OVER WESTERN 
WATERS...PARTICULARLY N OF 15N AND W OF 130W. 

THE FRONT IS ALSO PUSHING THROUGH INTO GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A 
0506 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED 20 KT SW FLOW AHEAD 
OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE STARTING TO VEER NW OVER SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA...AND FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW WILL LIKELY 
BE STARTING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THIS MORNING. WINDS TO 20 KT 
AND SEAS TO 8 FT CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF 
FROM N TO S THROUGH SAT AS THE FRONT PASS THROUGH AND WEAKENS.

A SURFACE LOW HAS FORMED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 08N92W 
WITH AND ESTIMATED PRES OF 1010 MB. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
WITHIN 120 NM N AND NE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER WITH BUILDING SEAS 
TO 10 FT IN E SWELL. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE 0322 ASCAT PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION 
SHOWED WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS ARE DIMINISHING BELOW GALE 
CONDITIONS...BUT FRESH TO STRONG GAP FLOW IS LIKELY INTO THE 
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES REMAINS STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WILL IMPACT THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WITH THE ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WINDS ARE 
GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN