000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 30 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

TROUGH 08N78W TO 08N85W TO 06N96W. ITCZ FROM 06N96W TO 08N115W 
TO 08N125W...THEN RESUMES AT 10N135W TO BEYOND 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 10N W OF 138W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED N OF 32N...AS A 
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF 
RIDGING BUILDING ALONG 140W. AN UPPER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
28N138W IS DRIFTING NE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE 
AND WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER 
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DIG THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH 24 HOURS. THIS WILL COME IN PHASE WITH 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH S OF 21N ALONG 115W...AND SUPPORT AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL REACH AS FAR S AS 26N E OF 120W 
BY LATE THU. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
SUPPORT FRESH TRADES N OF 10N W OF 130W THROUGH THU. FRESH TO 
STRONG N WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY N SWELL WITH 
HEIGHTS TO 15 FT AND PERIODS TO 11 SECONDS PER WW3 AND ECWAVE 
GUIDANCE. THE FRONT WILL DRIFT S AND DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE FRI.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SW WINDS TO 20 KT WILL PROCEED THE FRONT 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 29N THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH NW 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FOLLOWING THE FRONT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO DATA LATELY 
OVER THE GULF WATERS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS TO GALE FORCE 
PERSIST THIS MORNING. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE TODAY 
AS THE AIRMASS N OF THE AREA MODIFIES. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IS 
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRAINAGE IMPACTS...BUT MAY NOT BE TO 
GALE FORCE.

GULF OF FONSECA...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW WILL CONVERGE TO 
PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT BRIEFLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WILL ALSO IMPACT THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...WITH THE ADDED ENHANCEMENT OF STRONG GRADIENT FLOW 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

WHILE THIS IS PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THIS 
FLOW IS AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THU NEAR 
90W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THIS WEAK TROUGHING SHIFTS W AND 
INTERACTS WITH THE BROADENING UPPER TROUGH ALONG 115W. THERE IS 
GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MAJOR MODELS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
THIS LOW...AND WINDS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY ON THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. 

GULF OF PANAMA...SHIPS REPORTED FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW 
BLOWING FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS 
MORNING. THIS WILL DIMINISH AS WINDS TO THE NORTH VEER MORE 
EASTERLY.

OF NOTE...NOVEMBER 30 MARKS THE END OF THE TROPICAL SEASON IN 
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE 2011 TROPICAL SEASON PRODUCED A 
TOTAL OF 11 TROPICAL STORMS OF WHICH 10 BECAME HURRICANES... 
INCLUDING 6 MAJOR HURRICANES. ADRIAN WAS THE FIRST SYSTEM OF 
THE SEASON AND HAD A PEAK INTENSITY AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. 
DORA...EUGENE...HILARY...JOVA AND KENNETH ARE THE OTHER 5 
HURRICANES THAT REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THERE WAS ALSO 
TWO TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS. JOVA AFFECTED MEXICO.

$$
GR/CHRISTENSEN