000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291604
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 08N84W TO 06N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N127W 1011 MB 
THEN ITCZ TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N142W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
TO 20N144W. THIS IS SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 
144W. SCATTEROMETER AND SHIP DATA FROM THE PAST 12 HOURS SHOWED 
FRESH SE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND  1033 
MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N134W. 

ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS IN EXCESS OF 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA 
N OF 15N W OF 120W...LIKELY A MIX OF NW AND E SWELL.

FURTHER E...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO 
TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N116W TO 00N115W. UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE 
E SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM 
15N109W TO 10N111W ALONG WITH CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE 
NEAR THE TROUGH...HIGHER WINDS TO 20 KT ARE LIKELY IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. 

LOOKING AHEAD...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE S OF 30N...EXTENDING FROM 30N116W TO 26N123W. 
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WITH 
FRESH N SWELL TO 11 FT OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS MAINTAINING A GALE EVENT OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT 
PUSHED THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY. THIS IN TURN HAS PROMPTED A 
GALE EVENT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHERE A 04 UTC 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER SHOWED WINDS TO 35 KT. A REINFORCING FRONT 
WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF LATER TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH DRAINAGE 
EFFECTS COULD MAINTAIN GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY TO THE NORTH 
THROUGH WED...ALLOWING THE GALES TO DIMINISH. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW WINDS TO PULSE IN EXCESS OF 20 KT THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW AT SAN FELIPE IN 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS DIMINISHED AS SURFACE HIGH 
PRES OVER THE GREAT BASIN HAS WEAKENED. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT BY THU MORNING AS A 
DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN