000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 29 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 08N83W TO 06N95W TO 12N120W TO 08N130W. ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 08N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N 
OF 06N E OF 84W... AND WITHIN 120 NM OF TROUGH BETWEEN 102W AND 
129W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE AREA NEAR 26N141W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS PRODUCING A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL 
OVERCAST SKIES N OF 20N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 20N132W TO BEYOND 30N120W TO N BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO S 
BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 24N110W. AGAIN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 
THIS TROUGH AXIS IS PRODUCING A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL OVERCAST 
SKIES N OF 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE TROPICS S OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 07N89W. THIS UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH WILL MOVE NE TO NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

STRONG N WINDS ARE SURGING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 
35-45 KT BASED ON SURFACE WIND REPORTS. NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES ARE AVAILABLE TO HELP IDENTIFY MAXIMUM WINDS. GALE FORCE 
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH 
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING FROM 12-20 FT TONIGHT TO 8-12 FT WED.

A SURGE OF NLY WINDS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 
20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 
20-25 KT TUE MORNING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
FORMOSA