000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281550
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 06N96W TO 11N114W TO 
08N134W TO 10N140W. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM OF TROUGH NEAR 07N88W.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 18N117W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS
CENTERED NEAR COSTA RICA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM NEAR
10N135W THROUGH 24N128W TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE 
CUT-OFF LOW WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS BUT IS EJECTED 
NE WED AS THE UPPER WINDS BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION. A 
STRONG ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST NEAR COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. 
THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR STRONG SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 100W 
AND 115W WHICH WILL TRANSPORT ITCZ MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO.

FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG 140W IS SLOWLY MOVING W OF THE AREA. FRESH 
NLY WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ARE 
FOUND IN NW PORTION PORTION OF THE AREA...N OF 19N W OF 130W. 

FRESH NW WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS 
THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. FRESH NE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS W OF 120W.

STRONG N WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35-45 KT 
BASED ON SURFACE WIND REPORTS. NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES ARE
AVAILABLE TO HELP IDENTIFY MAXIMUM WINDS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH WED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDING FROM 12-20 FT TODAY TO 8-12 FT WED.

A SURGE OF NLY WINDS IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 
20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AT 
20-25 KT TUE MORNING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
MUNDELL