000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280940 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON NOV 28 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH 09N85W TO 06N95W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 09N103W TO 09N106W. ITCZ AXIS 09N106W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES 10N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N103W. ...DISCUSSION... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS SW ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO A CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 19N115W. THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 10N120W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 10N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE NE BEYOND 32N122W. W OF THE RIDGE...ANOTHER LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 27N140W. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH BUILDING SEAS TODAY OF 12 TO 16 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE W OF 140W LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS N OF FORECAST REGION. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES AND THE WWD DRIFTING FRONT WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT MAINLY N OF 22N W OF 135W IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH ARE NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N128W AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 120W...WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEMS ARE NOTED EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THE WESTERNMOST LOW IS NEAR 10N124W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND THE LOW IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 KT NE WINDS WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE LOW WILL TRACK WWD AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE NEWLY FORMED SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 09N103W IS ACCOMPANIED BY 15 KT WINDS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. GAP WINDS... NORTHERLY WINDS AT STRONG GALE FORCE WERE REPORTED AT THE LAND STATIONS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA...AND OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...AND WERE SURGING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AT MINIMAL STORM FORCE ON SUN. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IN ADDITION...THE NEW RUN OF THE COMPUTER MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS (45 KT) ACROSS THIS REGION. SO...DECIDE TO DROP THE STORM WARNING AT 0600 UTC AND KEEP A GALE WARNING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF OF 15-20 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STRONG FORCE WINDS TODAY. THESE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS OUT OF THE NE WILL MIX WITH THE LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGIONAL WATERS. AS A SURGE OF NLY WINDS INVADE THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK TUE MORNING WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ NELSON