000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT NOV 26 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N83W TO 06N94 WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ TO 09N99W TO LOW PRES 10.5N117W 1012 MB TO 11N129W THEN RESUMES AT 10N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN SPANS THE E HALF OF THE MID LATITUDES OF THE N PACIFIC BETWEEN 160W AND N AMERICA. A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY E ACROSS CENTRAL N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N104W TO 19N114W. THIS UPPER FEATURE HAS SUPPORTED A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING DEEP INTO THE AREA...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR MAZATLAN MEXICO SW TO NEAR 17N114W. A BAND OF BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS 100-120 NM WIDE WAS OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...WITH SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES DETECTED OVERNIGHT BY LIGHTNING DATA. THE WRN MOST LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY SUN. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH 30N140W TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 30N137W TO 27N140W SUN MORNING. NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 12 TO 16 FT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NW WATERS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE FRONT THEN SHIFTING SLOWLY W. THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH COULD BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURL...WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...RECENT SURFACE DATA HAS SUGGESTED THAT ONLY A TROUGH IS EVIDENT AT THE SURFACE...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 16N133W TO 11N134W AND MOVING W. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W AND REACH FROM 17N134W TO 12N135W LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N128W AND THIS TROUGH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF NE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 RANGE FROM 13N TO 22N BETWEEN 120W AND 135W AND FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 135W...WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 14 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NNW WINDS BEHIND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESENTLY PREVAIL FROM NEAR 28N TO THE OLD FRONT AT 20 TO 25 KT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE VEERING MORE NE THEN DIMINISHING SOME LATE SUN. SEAS HAVE BUILT 6-8 FT LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EARLY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE QUICKLY TO GALE FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO STORM FORCE (50 KT) BY SUN EVENING OR NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN EXCESS OF 15-20 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. A STORM WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. OF NOTE...THE MONTHLY DISTRIBUTION OF TEHUANTEPEC EVENTS SHOWS THAT THE LARGEST NUMBER OF GALE FORCE EVENTS OCCUR IN DECEMBER WHILE THE STORM FORCE EVENTS OCCUR MOST OFTEN IN JANUARY. THE PEAK MONTHS OF OCCURRENCES OF GALE AND STORM FORCE WIND EVENTS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE NOVEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY. $$ STRIPLING