000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260347
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM COSTA RICA AT 10N83W TO 
07N89W...THEN TURNS W TO 08N100W. DISSIPATING MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA.
LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 08N100W 
AND CONTINUES W THROUGH A SURFACE LOW PRES AT 10N114W ESTIMATED 
AT 1011 MB...THEN MEANDERS ALONG 08N TO 09N TO 130W...THEN 
TURNS SW BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N110W 
TO 08N117W.

THE REMNANT TROUGH OF KENNETH EXTENDS FROM 11N131W TO 12N125W 
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W REACHING FROM 10N134W TO 19N137W 
LATE SAT. STRONG POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A STRONG 
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PACIFIC...FROM 08N TO 18N TO THE W OF 
135W AND ALSO FROM 14N TO 28N BETWEEN 135W AND 118W...SUPPORTING 
NE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT...SEAS 10 TO 15 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW 
SWELL.      

...DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING E OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA 
WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N107W TO 15N115W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS OVER OLD 
MEXICO AND THE EXTREME E PACIFIC WATERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ENHANCED. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DETECTED BY 
LIGHTNING DATA ALONG THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT 22N107W. A 
150 NM WIDE BAND OF DEBRIS MOISTURE PRECEDES THE UPPER TROUGH 
FROM 23N106W TO 30N101W...THEN FANS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS 
OF TEXAS AND ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 11N139W WITH A RIDGE N TO BEYOND 
35N126W. UPPER MOISTURE...ORIGINATING W OF THE AREA...IS MOVING 
NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N 
OF 22N W OF 135W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 08N97W WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING 
THE AREA E OF 105W. DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 108W AND 118W FANS OUT TO THE N AND S BUT 
EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN 
BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME LATE SUN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL 
FURTHER DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 30 
KT LATE SAT NIGHT...WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AT SUNRISE SUN
INCREASING TO STORM FORCE BY SUNSET SUN.  

$$
NELSON