000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM COSTA RICA AT 10N83W TO 
07N89W...THEN TURNS W TO 08N102W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG 
OCCASIONALLY STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N TO E OF 
81W...BUT IS DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AT THE MOMENT. LOW 
LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 08N102W AND 
CONTINUES W THROUGH A SURFACE LOW PRES AT 10N113W ESTIMATED AT 
1012 MB...TO THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE 
KENNETH AT 12N127W...THEN THE ITCZ TURNS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 
10N110.5W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 09.5N114W. 

LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT LOW 
PRESSURE OF KENNETH HAS WEAKENED TO AN OPEN TROUGH. HOWEVER...
STRONG POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A STRONG PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WITHIN 420 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE REMNANTS OF 
KENNETH SUPPORTING NE WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT...SEAS 11 TO 16 FT IN 
MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.      

...DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING E OVER CENTRAL N AMERICA 
WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 
32N110W TO 15N115W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS JUST NOW 
CLEARING THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH CONVECTION NOW 
ONLY ENHANCED OVER NORTHWESTERN OLD MEXICO. A BAND OF DEBRIS 
MOISTURE PRECEDES THE UPPER TROUGH AND FANS OUT ACROSS THE UPPER 
LEVELS OF TEXAS AND ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...AND WESTERN 
MISSISSIPPI. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 10N139W WITH A RIDGE N TO BEYOND 
32N130W. UPPER MOISTURE ORIGINATING W OF THE AREA IS MOVING E 
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 22N W OF 137W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 07N88W WITH A BROAD RIDGE COVERING 
THE AREA E OF 95W. DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 108W AND 120W FANS OUT BUT QUICKLY EVAPORATES 
IN THE DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE TROPICS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN 
BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME LATE SUN.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 
TO 30 KT AT SUNRISE SUN...WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS BY SUN 
AFTERNOON...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE EARLY SUN 
NIGHT.  

$$
NELSON