000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251616 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC FRI NOV 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... KENNETH WAS FURTHER DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 25/1500 UTC...CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 126.2W 1007 MB MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIMITED AND REMOVED TO THE SE OF THE CENTER. SINCE THIS POST-TROPICAL LOW IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE WITHIN IN 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH 10N84W TO 06N90W TO 08N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N113W 1011 MB TO 11N120W. ITCZ BEGINS SW OF REMNANT LOW KENNETH NEAR 10N126W TO 07N131W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM E AND 180 NM W OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N113W. ...DISCUSSION... A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOMINATES THE REGION N OF 18N BETWEEN 155W AND 105W. THE EASTERN-MOST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A WEAKENING DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE SW U.S. THROUGH 30N11W TO NEAR 18N118W. ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N114W THEN EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 18N118W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM NW MEXICO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 17N119W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF LOW TOPPED TSTMS WERE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NW MEXICO...THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA. ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE DESSERT-LIKE TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OF GUTS AND RAVINES TODAY. BEHIND THIS WEAKENING FRONT...A DISSIPATING 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR 26.5N118.5W....WHILE A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTER WAS CENTERED NEAR 33N131W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THIS DISSIPATING LOW WAS YIELDING AN AREA OF N TO NE WINDS AROUND 20 KT W OF THE LOW TO 128W. NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THESE AREA WATERS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE LOW...AND SEAS 9 TO 14 FT ELSEWHERE TO THE NW. THIS NW SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH SAT MORNING THEN DROP MORE QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SUN. A STRONG PRES GRADIENT CONTINUED BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRES CENTER AND THE REMNANT LOW OF KENNETH THIS MORNING...GENERATING STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS THAN WOULD BE TYPICAL FOR A DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE. A BROAD ZONE OF NE WINDS 20-30 KT WAS OCCURRING NW AND N OF THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH...TO 27N. AS THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH MOVE W AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THIS BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHRINK AND WEAKEN...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT S OF 20N SUN MORNING. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE 1025 MB HIGH SHIFTING E AHEAD OF IT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE SIERRA MADRES OF MEXICO INDUCE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...YIELDING INCREASING NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE. SEAS WILL BUILD 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUN. NE WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 88W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT SAT MORNING AND THEN BELOW 20 KT BY SAT EVENING. GAP WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REMAINED 20 TO 30 KT THIS MORNING WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE TO 20 KT THROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY SUN MORNING...INCREASING QUICKLY TO GALE FORCE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO STORM FORCE (50 KT) SUN EVENING OR NIGHT. SEAS COULD BUILD IN EXCESS OF 18-20 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORM FORCE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. $$ STRIPLING