000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

KENNETH WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 25/0900 UTC. 
AT THIS TIME...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N 124.4W 1005 MB MOVING W 
OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 40 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE 
IS LIMITED AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. SINCE THE 
DEPRESSION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING 
SHEAR...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH 09N84W TO 08N100W TO LOW PRES 09N112W 1010 MB TO 
10N118W. ITCZ AXIS 10N126W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 107W AND 114W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE NORTH WATERS. THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N114W THEN EXTENDS 
SW TO NEAR 19N117W. A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED 
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
NOTED. A RIDGE...WITH AXIS ALONG 130W...ANCHORED ON AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N128W COVERS THE NW PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS OBSERVED N OF 10N BETWEEN 
84W AND 106W INCLUDING SE MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE IS NEAR 27N118W. 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS DISSIPATED AND CURRENTLY A FRONTAL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW TO 27N115W TO 24N117W TO 21N123W. THE 
FRONTAL TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 14 FT. 

NLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF AREA NEAR 34N128W AND LOWER PRES OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH SAT 
NIGHT.

NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 
12N TO THE E OF 88W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...THEN 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE TODAY.  

A SHIP MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REPORTED NLY WINDS 
OF 33 KT AND SEAS TO 12 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 
TO 25 KT THIS MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT TONIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO SAT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE TO 20 KT IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT. ACCORDING TO 
THE MARINE GUIDANCE...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS TO GALE FORCE 
EARLY SUN MORNING...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE SUN 
NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 14-16 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE 
STRONG WINDS. 

$$
GR