000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH AT 13.4N 123.3W 1003 MB AT 0300 UTC 25 
NOV MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE S QUADRANT WITHIN 30 NM OF 12.5N 
122.5W. DISSIPATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 121.5W 
TO 13.5N 123.5W. KENNETH IS ENCOUNTERING NW SHEAR AND CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN. ALTHOUGH KENNETH IS LOSING TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FEATURES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NW OF THE CENTER IS TIGHTENING 
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND FIELD WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND OUT TO 720 NM 
OVER THE N QUADRANT ON FRI AS THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES...AND 
THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND FURTHER 
WEAKENS TO REMNANT LOW PRESSURE LATE FRI NIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS COSTA RICA AT 10N83W 
TO OVER THE PACIFIC AT 07N90W...THEN TURNS W TO A EMBEDDED 
SURFACE LOW PRES AT 09N108W ESTIMATED AT 1010 MB...WITH THE 
TROUGH TURNING NW TO NEAR 11N118W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN THE ARE BOUNDED BY 07N TO 
12N BETWEEN 106W AND 117W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS NOTED SW OF THE 
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH AT 10N123W...AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 
06N140W...BUT LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT.

...DISCUSSION...

A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF 
N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ALONG 32N117W TO 17N127W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 30N 
E OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS...AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS...NW OLD MEXICO 
AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DRY UPPER AIR IS SWEEPING SE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 32N BETWEEN 115W AND 137W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W... 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W THROUGH 14N120W PASSING JUST TO THE N 
OF TS KENNETH TO A CREST NEAR 20N140W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER 
THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N120W. SOME OF DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
KENNETH IS SPREADING NE CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW PLUME 
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA MERGING WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED OVER NW OLD MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION BETWEEN 105W AND 117W FANS OUT 
NORTHWARD...BUT EVAPORATES ALONG 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. 
EXCEPT FOR DEBRIS MOISTURE EVAPORATING ALONG07N BETWEEN 87W AND 
96W...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 22N E OF 105W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A 1015 MB FRONTAL WAVE LOW PRESSURE NEAR 
29N119W HAS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 22N122W...
THEN DIFFUSE TO 20N134W. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA FRI. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 25 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 14 FT. SOUTHERLY 
WINDS ARE AT 20 KT N OF 28N WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 
KT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRI INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE FRI 
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN 
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BRIEFLY 
FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE FRI.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT WILL 
DIMINISH TO 20 TO 25 KT FRI MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT FRI NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE SE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE TO 20 
KT EARLY SAT NIGHT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE SUN...THEN 
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE SUN NIGHT.  

$$
NELSON