000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU NOV 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KENNETH AT 13.5N 122.3W 1002 MB AT 2100 UTC 24 NOV MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONLY OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE S QUADRANT. DISSIPATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N120W TO 13N123W. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS RECENTLY EXPOSED AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS NW SHEAR AND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. ALTHOUGH KENNETH IS LOSING TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NW OF THE CENTER IS TIGHTENING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED TO THE N OF THE SYSTEM. THE 20 TO 25 KT WIND FIELD WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND OUT TO 600 NM OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE ON FRI AS THE CONVECTION DISSIPATES...AND THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND FURTHER WEAKENS TO REMNANT LOW PRESSURE ON FRI NIGHT...IF NOT SOONER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS NE TO SW ACROSS COSTA RICA AT 10N83W TO OVER THE PACIFIC AT 07N90W...THEN TURNS W TO A EMBEDDED SURFACE LOW PRES AT 09N108W ESTIMATED AT 1013 MB...WITH THE TROUGH TURNING NW TO NEAR 11N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N105W TO 08N110W TO 10N114W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS NOTED SW OF THE TROPICAL STORM KENNETH AT 11N124W...AND CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 06N140W...BUT LACKS CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF N AMERICA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N117W TO 18N123W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 30N E OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS...AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS AND NW OLD MEXICO. DRY UPPER AIR IS SWEEPING SE ACROSS THE AREA FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 120W AND 145W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W... WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W THROUGH 15N110W TO A CREST NEAR 17N140W...ALL JUST TO THE N OF TS KENNETH. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N117W. SOME OF DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING NE CONCENTRATING INTO A NARROW PLUME ALONG 15N120W AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MERGING WITH ANOTHER MOISTURE PLUME PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OVER NW OLD MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION BETWEEN 104W AND115W FANS OUT MAINLY NORTHWARD...BUT EVAPORATES ALONG 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 114W. EXCEPT FOR DEBRIS MOISTURE NEAR 08N90W THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 22N E OF 105W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A 1013 MB FRONTAL WAVE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPED NEAR 30N121W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT S TO 26N120W THEN DIFFUSE TO 21N140W. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 14 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AT 20 WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY FRI INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE FRI CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BRIEFLY FRI MORNING...THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE FRI. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SUNSET TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT FRI NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE SE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE TO 20 KT EARLY SAT NIGHT IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... INCREASING GALE FORCE AT SUNRISE SUN...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON