000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241614 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU NOV 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 121.5W 996 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. ALTHOUGH IR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH MAY BE BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC AROUND THE CENTER...RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST CLOUD TOPS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANTS AND 90 NM NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN WATERS. AS A RESULT...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AFTER 24 HOURS...EARLY FRI...AND THEN TO A REMNANT LOW PRES LATE BY FRI EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 07N99W 11N113W. SATELLITE DERIVED LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS FROM NEAR 10N123W TO 07N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 104W AND 112W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS PROGRESSED EASTWARD TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THE N AMERICA AND IS BEGINNING TO BECOME REMOVED FROM THE NRN STREAM FLOW N OF 45N. THE MEAN AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 31N123W TO 19N125W. UPPER MOISTURE IS SPREADING NE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED ROBUST COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM A 1010 MB SFC LOW NEAR 31N123W THROUGH 30N122W TO 22.5N130W THEN DISSIPATING FRONT TO 23N140W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 21N119W BY TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG IT NEAR 29N119W BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS IT SHIFTS E OF THE AREA EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD AIR MASS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WATERS. N TO NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 130W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT. S TO SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W COAST FROM CALIFORNIA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...YIELDING SEAS JUST OFFSHORE OF NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS HIGH AS 10 FT. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH GENERALLY EXTEND S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TO 19-20N...WHILE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES S OF 20N E OF 134W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 31N145W WAS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL SHIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND HAS ALREADY TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO ITS S...YIELDING FRESH TRADEWINDS FROM 10N TO 18N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER AND THE AREA OF FRESH TRADES EXPAND IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH MOVES E AND THE REMNANT OF KENNETH MOVE INTO THE AREA. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT FRI EVENING N OF 26N AND EXPAND S THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF BY SAT MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE SAT MORNING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS HAVE SURGED INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 35 KT AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MINIMUM GALE FORCE THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN STRONG GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF BY EARLY ON SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE ON SUN. $$ STRIPLING