000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241014 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU NOV 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS CENTERED AT 13.8N 120.7W 996 MB AT 0900 UTC 24 NOV MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS AND 45 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH REMAINS VERY INTENSE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN WATERS. AS A RESULT...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION EARLY FRI AND A REMNANT LOW PRES LATE BY LATE FRI NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N AND CONTINUING W SW TO NEAR 9N100W 10N113W. LOW LEVEL WINDS THEN INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 9N125W AND CONTINUES TO 8N132W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...AND ALSO 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THE N AMERICA. ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N126W AND SW TO 21N130W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 29N E OF THROUGH AXIS AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N124W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR HAWAII. DEBRIS MOISTURE PRIMARILY ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 140W IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONCENTRATING INTO A 270 NM WIDE PLUME CENTERED ALONG POINTS 17N140W TO 22N124W... THEN FANS OUT AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TO OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT 16N113W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO OVER TROPICAL STORM KENNETH AND TO NEAR 12N126W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 2N112W. SOME OF DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING NE...BUT SEEMS TO EVAPORATE NEAR 20N110W. SOME OF THE KENNETH DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 117W IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER CYCLONE. DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION FANS OUT...MAINLY NORTHWARD...BUT EVAPORATES ALONG 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER ROBUST COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE AREA. IT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N124W SW TO 24N131W...AND IS DISSIPATING TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO A POSITION FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 21N119W BY TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG IT NEAR 29N119W BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS IT DISSIPATES WHILE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD AIR MASS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WATERS. THE EDGE OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0600 UTC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 134W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 17 FT. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT FRI EVENING FROM 23N TO 29N. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE FRI NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS HAVE SURGED INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 30 KT AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE EARLY ON FRI. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN STRONG GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF BY EARLY ON SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE ON SUN. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241014 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU NOV 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS CENTERED AT 13.8N 120.7W 996 MB AT 0900 UTC 24 NOV MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS AND 45 NM N SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 119W AND 121W. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH REMAINS VERY INTENSE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MARKED BY NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN WATERS. AS A RESULT...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION EARLY FRI AND A REMNANT LOW PRES LATE BY LATE FRI NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N AND CONTINUING W SW TO NEAR 9N100W 10N113W. LOW LEVEL WINDS THEN INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AT 9N125W AND CONTINUES TO 8N132W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...AND ALSO 60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W AND 111W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THE N AMERICA. ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N126W AND SW TO 21N130W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 29N E OF THROUGH AXIS AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 12N124W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR HAWAII. DEBRIS MOISTURE PRIMARILY ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 140W IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONCENTRATING INTO A 270 NM WIDE PLUME CENTERED ALONG POINTS 17N140W TO 22N124W... THEN FANS OUT AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TO OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA AT 16N113W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO OVER TROPICAL STORM KENNETH AND TO NEAR 12N126W. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 2N112W. SOME OF DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING NE...BUT SEEMS TO EVAPORATE NEAR 20N110W. SOME OF THE KENNETH DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 117W IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER CYCLONE. DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION FANS OUT...MAINLY NORTHWARD...BUT EVAPORATES ALONG 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 110W. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER ROBUST COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE AREA. IT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N124W SW TO 24N131W...AND IS DISSIPATING TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO A POSITION FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 21N119W BY TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG IT NEAR 29N119W BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AS IT DISSIPATES WHILE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA EARLY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD AIR MASS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN WATERS. THE EDGE OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0600 UTC THIS MORNING SUGGESTED N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO NEAR 134W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 17 FT. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT FRI EVENING FROM 23N TO 29N. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE FRI NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS HAVE SURGED INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 30 KT AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE EARLY ON FRI. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN STRONG GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE GULF...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF BY EARLY ON SUN. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE ON SUN. $$ AGUIRRE