000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240348 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC THU NOV 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KENNETH AT 13.5N 119.8W 989 MB AT 0300 UTC 24 NOV MOVING W NW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 118W AND 120W. KENNETH IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN WATERS. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION EARLY FRI AND A REMNANT LOW PRES LATE SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N AND CONTINUING W SW TO NEAR TO 08N107W...THEN TURNS NW TO NEAR 12N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 15 NM OF 08.5N89W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.5N102W TO 08N108.5W. THE ITCZ AXIS FORMS SW OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH NEAR 10N1232W AND DROPS SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 08N128W AND 07N137W. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO ALONG THE W COAST OF THE N AMERICA. ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N128W TO 21N130W. UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 29N E OF THROUGH AXIS AND IS SPREADING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED AT 12N124W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR HAWAII. DEBRIS MOISTURE PRIMARILY ORIGINATING FROM FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 140W IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CONCENTRATING INTO A 270 NM WIDE PLUME CENTERED ALONG POINTS 17N140W TO 22N124W... THEN FANS OUT AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND NOW MOVING ACROSS SE ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 15N123W...JUST TO THE N OF TS KENNETH. AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 02N110W. SOME OF DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING NE...BUT SEEMS TO EVAPORATE NEAR 20N110W. SOME OF THE KENNETH DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ALSO ADVECTED S ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 117W IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER CYCLONE. DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION FANS OUT...MAINLY NORTHWARD...BUT EVAPORATES ALONG 13N BETWEEN 99W AND 106W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 32N127W TO 25N140W WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH POSSIBLE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR 29N119W LATE THU. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 17 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W...TO INCLUDE THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS HAVE SURGED INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 30 KT AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THU MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THU...BUT CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN A STRONG GALE IN...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE SUN...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON