000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232154
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH AT 13.2N 118.6W 988 MB AT 2100 UTC 23 NOV 
MOVING W NW OR 285 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 
KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE NW AND 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE 
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 119W. KENNETH IS WEAKENING 
RAPIDLY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN WATERS.
KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY LATE FRI. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N 
AND CONTINUING WSW TO NEAR TO 09N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 15 NM OF 06N79W AND 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N90W TO 08N107W. THE 
ITCZ AXIS FORMS SW OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH NEAR 10N122W AND 
DROPS SW TO 08N130W THEN CONTINUES W BEYOND 08N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N126W TO 07N138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS ALONG 32N130W TO 21N130W. 
UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 29N E OF THROUGH AXIS AND IS 
SPREADING NE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 

A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED AT 13N125W WITH AN UPPER 
RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR 18N154W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM FORMER 
ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 140W IS ADVECTED NE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE CONCENTRATING INTO A 300 NM WIDE PLUME CENTERED ALONG 
POINTS 18N140W TO 21N127W THEN NARROWS AS IT CROSSES THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALONG 29N.

ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST AT 16N121W...JUST TO THE N OF TS 
KENNETH. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING NE BUT SEEMS 
TO EVAPORATE NEAR 20N110W. DEBRIS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
MONSOON TROUGH CONVECTION EVAPORATES TO THE S OF 12N. OTHERWISE 
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 22N BETWEEN 115W AND 80W. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS...A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS AT 24N124W AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG 32N129W 
TO 26N140W CONTINUES MOVING SE. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 30 
KT NORTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 16 FT. 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE AT 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 
KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS ARE PULSING AT 15 TO 20 KT IN 
THE AREA FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W INCLUDING THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.   

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS ARE SURGING INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AT 20 TO 25 KT AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 
MINIMUM GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. THE NORTHERLY 
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THU BUT NORTHERLY 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN A STRONG GALE 
IN...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE 
SUN...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE LATE SUN INTO SUN 
NIGHT.  

$$
NELSON