000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231607 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED NOV 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE KENNETH WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 117.3W 978 MB AT 1500 UTC 23 NOV MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 80 KT GUSTS TO 105 KT. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE WNW LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 15 N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY LATE SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 09N94W TO 07N103W TO 10N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N120W TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 06N TO 10 N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 125W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME OVER THE NW PORTION FROM 32N135W TO 25N140W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS JUST MOVED NE OF THE AREA TO OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BEING EJECTED ENE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TO FAR INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS OBSERVED OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE N OF 21N AND OF 123W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N134W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 134W IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE FROM 15N TO 26N AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 122W BEFORE IT ERODES IN DRIER AND STABLE AIR. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED E OF THE AREA OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER HURRICANE KENNETH. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD IN A NARROW PLUME AS IT MOVES NE OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MOVING WNW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE MONSOON TROUGH RELATED MOISTURE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS IS SEEN TO THE E OF ABOUT 105W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N125W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST ENTERED THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 30N137W TO BEYOND 29N140W MOVING SE. IN 24 HOURS IT WILL EXTEND FROM 30N122W TO 23N130W AND DISSIPATE TO 22N140W. IN 48 HOURS THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AT 27N110W TO 20N119W. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 17 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 20 KT AROUND DAYBREAK THU MORNING THEN DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THU EVENING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 15 TO 20 KT AND WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AT 25-35 KT THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO LATE THU NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN A STRONG GALE IN...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE SUN...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. $$ FORMOSA