000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED NOV 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 06000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE KENNETH WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 116.5W 968 MB AT 0900 UTC 23 NOV MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 95 KT GUSTS TO 115 KT. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE WNW LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 120 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 13N112W TO 15N114W. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY LATE SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N TURNING SW TO NEAR 8N100W...AND CONTINUING W TO 8N100W AND NW TO 10N110W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 100W-103W. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS SW OF HURRICANE KENNETH NEAR 9120W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 87N128W TO BEYOND THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 127W-131W. ...DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ONE BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME OVER THE NW PORTION FROM 32N135W TO 25N140W. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE HAS JUST MOVED NE OF THE AREA TO OVER FAR NW MEXICO AND THE SW U.S. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE BEING EJECTED ENE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TO FAR INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS OBSERVED OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE N OF 21N AND OF 123W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 14N134W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS ITCZ CONVECTION W OF 134W IS ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE FROM 15N TO 26N AND EASTWARD TO NEAR 122W BEFORE IT ERODES IN DRIER AND STABLE AIR. A LARGER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED E OF THE AREA OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER HURRICANE KENNETH. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD IN A NARROW PLUME AS IT MOVES NE OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MOVING WNW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE OUTSIDE MONSOON TROUGH RELATED MOISTURE...MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALLOWING FOR RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS IS SEEN TO THE E OF ABOUT 105W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED 29N122W WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N112W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT JUST NW OF THE AREA MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE AREA TO ALONG 32N131W TO 26N140W THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...TO ALONG 32N124W TO 25N133W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 23N121W BY LATE THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 17 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AT THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 20 KT AROUND DAYBREAK THU MORNING THEN DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN TO LESS THAN 20 KT EARLY THU EVENING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 15 TO 20 KT NEAR DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AT 25-35 KT FROM THE N TO NE BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO LATE THU NIGHT. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN A STRONG GALE IN...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE SUN...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE