000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230347 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED NOV 23 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE KENNETH AT 12.5N 115.6W 949 MB AT 0300 UTC 23 NOV MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT GUSTS TO 140 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM OF 16N114W AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N112W TO 10N110W. THE HURRICANE IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE FRI. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N TURNING SW TO NEAR TO 08N97W...THEN TURNING NW TO 10N107W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N79W TO 09N100W. THE ITCZ AXIS FORMS SW OF HURRICANE KENNETH NEAR 10N118W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 07N127W THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N124W TO 07N129W AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF 09N135W. ...DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND NE OLD MEXICO WHILE THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME OVER THE NW PORTION FROM 32N133W TO 27N126W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED AT 28N117W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING NE THROUGH THE WESTERN TROUGH AND CONTINUING E ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER CALIFORNIA AND NW ARIZONA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY N OF 23N E OF 125W. A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED AT 13N134W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 134W AND 140W AND FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 140W AND 155W...IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE SPILLING OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 20N94W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER HURRICANE KENNETH. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING NE IN A NARROW PLUME AS IT MOVES NE OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MOVING WNW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 80W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS AT 31N123W AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE AND DISSIPATE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION TONIGHT...AND CONTINUES E ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FRI. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS TO 17 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 240 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TO THE S OF 24N NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER TONIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON WED. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 15 TO 20 KT EARLY WED...INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT LATE WED...INCREASING BRIEFLY TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE THU. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN A STRONG GALE IN...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE SUN...THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE LATE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON