000 AXPZ20 KNHC 222156 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE NOV 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE KENNETH AT 12.6N 114.9W 943 MB AT 2100 UTC 22 NOV MOVING W OR 265 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS TO 150 KT. THE EYE DIAMETER IS ABOUT 20 NM WIDE SURROUNDED BY NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN TWO BANDS OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE...ONE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 16.5N113W TO 16N112W AND THE SECOND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 14N111W TO 11N109W. THE HURRICANE WILL SOON WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS AND SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY SAT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS E TO W ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THE E PACIFIC WATERS ALONG 09N FROM 76W TO 93W...THEN TURNS SW TO NEAR TO 08N98W...THEN TURNING NW TO 10N105W. THE ITCZ AXIS FORMS SW OF HURRICANE KENNETH NEAR 08N115W...AND CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 05N78W TO 08N85W AND ALSO WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 93W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N115W TO 07N127W AND LINE 08N133W TO 09N138W. ...DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND NE OLD MEXICO WHILE THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS BECOMING NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE NW PORTION FROM 32N135W TO 26N125W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED AT 28N117W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING N ACROSS WESTERN ARIZONA. UPPER MOISTURE IS ROTATING NE THROUGH THE WESTERN TROUGH AND CONTINUING E ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS APPEAR DRY N OF 23N E OF 125W. A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS OBSERVED AT 13N134W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. DEBRIS MOISTURE...FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 132W AND 140W AND FORMER ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 140W AND 155W...IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE...AND SPILLING OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. ANOTHER UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER OLD MEXICO AT 20N90W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW OVER HURRICANE KENNETH. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM KENNETH IS SPREADING N BECOMING A NARROW PLUME AS IT MOVES NE OVER CENTRAL OLD MEXICO. THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IS MOVING W ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS EASTERN RIDGE. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 22N BETWEEN 107W AND 80W. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS AT 31N123W AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE AND DISSIPATE AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION TONIGHT...AND CONTINUES E EVENTUALLY STALLING FROM 32N122W TO 22N122W ON THU AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS TO 17 FT. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 300 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...TO THE S OF 24N NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT LATER TONIGHT. GULF OF PAPAGAYO....NE TO E WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 12N TO THE E OF 89W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ON WED. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT SHOULD SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ON WED...INCREASING BRIEFLY TO MINIMUM GALE FORCE AROUND SUNRISE THU. THE NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATE FRI. A STRONGER FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN A STRONG GALE IN...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE SUN... THEN POSSIBLY INCREASING TO STORM FORCE SUN NIGHT. $$ NELSON