000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE KENNETH NEAR 12.7N 113.9W AT 22/1500 UTC MOVING W OR 
265 DEG AT 11 KT. KENNETH IS A CATEGORY 4 MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT GUSTS TO 150 KT. MSLP IS 943 MB. 
IT WILL MOVE W THROUGH THU S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN BEGIN
TO TURN WNW. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY... 
FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TONIGHT. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
CENTER AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM 
OF THE CENTER. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N99W TO 10N105W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N116W TO 
8N131W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM 
THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

A DIVERSE MIX OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS IS OCCURRING OR IS 
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS IN THE E PACIFIC...
IN ADDITION TO MAJOR HURRICANE KENNETH. FRESH NW WINDS IN THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH WED
AND THU AS HIGH PRES 1026 MB NEAR 31N125W SHIFTS S AND WEAKENS. 
A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS AROUND 20 KT FROM 10N TO 17N
W OF 120W WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH WED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT 
ERODES A HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER NW PORTION OF THE AREA. LINGERING 
N TO NW SWELL WILL CONTRACT SOUTHWARD FROM MOST OF THE AREA W OF 
108W OUTSIDE THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE KENNETH TO S OF AROUND 22N 
WED...THEN BETWEEN 07N AND 12N BY THU.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA WED MORNING WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON 
BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES S OF 30N. LARGE 
NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD 
THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THU. BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA THU NIGHT...NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE BELOW 20 KT. MAX COMBINED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 16-18 FT IN 
NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU. AS HURRICANE KENNETH
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT 
WILL A VERY LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS FRI EXTENDING
FROM THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE N TO 25N...AND W TO 140W.

HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO WED WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
CHIVELA PASS AND PRODUCE ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...BEGINNING WED MORNING. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY THU 
MORNING...DIMINISHING BY THU NIGHT. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A 
MUCH STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
THIS WEEKEND...WITH EITHER STRONG GALE OR STORM FORCE WINDS 
LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL PULSATE DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
TO AROUND 90W DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... MAINLY DURING THE 
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
MUNDELL