000 AXPZ20 KNHC 221003 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE NOV 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... MAJOR HURRICANE KENNETH WAS CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 112.8W AT 22/0900 UTC OR 710 MI S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 957 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. KENNETH WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH THEN WEAKENING EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. KENNETH IS THE LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE SATELLITE ERA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OF KENNETH EXCEPT 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE N SEMICIRCLE. SE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 8N94W TO 10N101W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N115W TO 8N125W TO 8N135W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ W OF 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 96W AND 101W. ...DISCUSSION... MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDING EASTWARD COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 131W. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS ALONG 26N122W 16N119W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE AREA SE OF TROUGH THE TROUGH TO OVER HURRICANE KENNETH...AND E TO NEAR 107W. TO THE W OF THE TROUGH A PAIR OF UPPER ANTICYCLONES ARE NEAR 14N127W AND 12N135W WITH ASSOCIATED BROD RIDGING COVERING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 8N TO 25N W OF 124W. BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS JUST NW OF THE REGION. OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EVIDENT FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W-108W. AT THE SURFACE... A 1026 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 30N127W WITH A RIDGE SW TO W OF THE AREA AT 28N140W...AND ANOTHER SE TO NEAR 21N108W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N. A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE ALONG 131W FROM 4N TO 9N...AND ALONG 140W FROM 6N TO 10N. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S IS ALLOWING FOR NE 20 KT TRADES TO BE CONFINED FROM 10N-19N W OF 119W WHERE SEAS ARE 8-11 FT IN A NW TO N SWELL. THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME AS HURRICANE KENNETH TRACKS WESTWARD. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO HAS INDUCED 20 KT WINDS INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FROM 24N TO 30N TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY WED MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY WED MORNING. SW 20-25 KT WINDS AND BUILDING NW SWELL WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WITH W-NW 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 17 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE FROM 36-48 HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES BY TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WED NIGHT (JUST BEYOND 48 HOURS)...DIMINISHING BY THU NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WITH THE A STRONG GALE TO NEAR STORM FORCE EVENT POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL PULSATE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OFF AND ON DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ AGUIRRE