000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220331 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE NOV 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE KENNETH NEAR 13.0N 111.8W AT 22/0300 UTC OR 695 MI S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 11 KT. KENNETH WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNDER THE GUIDANCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 973 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KENNETH COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. IF KENNETH DOES INDEED ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE SATELLITE ERA. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER OF KENNETH. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER OF KENNETH ...EXCEPT 240 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07.5N92W TO 11N104W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N113W TO 07N122W TO 08N128W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N130W TO 09N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... A LINGERING SET OF 8-12 FT NW SWELL COVERS THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF 21N W OF 116W. 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS NEAR 30N128W WITH A RIDGE AXIS REACHING SE FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 20N110W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S...AND EARLIER ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED FRESH NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 12N TO 21N W OF 116W WITH 8-11 FT NE WIND WAVES MIXED WITH THE LEADING PACK OF THE DECAYING NW SWELL IN THIS SAME AREA. THE AREA OF TRADES WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE NW SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT. THE TRADES WILL THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT FROM 24-48 HOURS AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO THE S TO NEAR 23N127W...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN TROUGH REACHES FROM 11N128W TO 08N129W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. THE OTHER TROUGH IS APPROACHING 140W EXTENDING FROM 12N138W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 135W AND 139W. NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER DEVELOP. 1009 MB LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 07.5N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE LOW. THIS LOW MAY SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES W AROUND 5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE NW WINDS OF 20 KT INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 27N BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT FROM 24N TO 30N TUE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY WED MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY WED MORNING. SW 20-25 KT WINDS AND BUILDING NW SWELL WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WITH W-NW 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 17 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY TUE MORNING. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE FROM 36-48 HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES BY TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE WED NIGHT (JUST BEYOND 48 HOURS)...DIMINISHING BY THU NIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD...A MUCH STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND WITH THE A STRONG GALE TO NEAR STORM FORCE EVENT POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL PULSATE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OFF AND ON DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ LEWITSKY