000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212140 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON NOV 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE KENNETH NEAR 13.0N 110.6W AT 21/2100 UTC OR 685 MI S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. KENNETH HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE E PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KENNETH WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND KENNETH MAY APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR BEYOND THAT TIME. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OF KENNETH...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180-210 NM OF THE CENTER OF KENNETH. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N79W TO 08N93W TO 10N100W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N100W TO 14N106W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N112W TO 08N126W THEN RESUMES FROM 08N129W TO 09N135W THEN RESUMES FROM 09N138W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 111W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07.5N TO 10N W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT THAT WAS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED...HOWEVER THERE ARE LINGERING NW SWELLS OF 8-13 FT N OF 21N W OF 116W. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE KENNETH. 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N134W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE E-NE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR 33N123W IN 24 HOURS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ TO THE S...AND A 1744 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED FRESH NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 11N TO 21N W OF 125W WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND NW SWELL IN THIS SAME AREA. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THEY WILL CONTRACT TO THE AREA FROM 09N TO 16N W OF 136W IN 48 HOURS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE EASTERN TROUGH REACHES FROM 10N127W TO 06N128W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. THE OTHER TROUGH IS APPROACHING 140W EXTENDING FROM 12N136W TO 07N137W. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER DEVELOP. A TIGTHER PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE NW WINDS OF 20 KT INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 28N BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASING TO 20-25 KT TUE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY WED EVENING. A NEW AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY WED EVENING. SW 20-25 KT WINDS AND BUILDING NW SWELL WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT...WITH W-NW 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 18 FT BY 48 HOURS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL COMMENCE FROM 24-48 HOURS AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES BY TO THE N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WILL PULSATE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OFF AND ON DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ LEWITSKY