000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE KENNETH NEAR 12.7N 109.6W AT 21/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 705 
MI S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW AT 12 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS LOWERED TO 989 MB 
DURING THE MORNING...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 
HAVING INCREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. THE OVERALL 
STRUCTURE OF KENNETH HAS CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED AS BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE WRAPPED MORE 
THAN 360 DEGREES AROUND THE CENTER...USUALLY INDICATIVE OF 
HURRICANE INTENSITY. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER OF KENNETH. ELSEWHERE 
...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST 
HAS KENNETH MOVING ON A WESTWARD TRACK AS IT WILL BE STEERED BY 
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS N. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING 
OF KENNETH IS ANTICIPATED AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A MAJOR 
HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR 
MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO 07N93W TO 
09N99W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS THERE AND 
CONTINUES TO 12N104W. IT THEN RESUMES AT 10N111W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT WEST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN 
SOME W-NW 20 KT WINDS JUST WEST OF NW BAJA.  THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE 
LATER TODAY.  SEAS N OF 26N ARE IN THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT IN A 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TRAIN. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA COVERING MAINLY THE AREA 
N OF 15N AND W OF 110W WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE SEAS ASSOCIATED 
WITH KENNETH. THE LARGE NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
DECAY TO NEAR 9 FT BY 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXISTS 
NEAR 29N139W AND IS FORCING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
IT AND THE ITCZ TO ITS SOUTH.  THIS IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 
FRESH TRADES FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 130W ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS 
IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.  THE TRADEWINDS AREA IS FORECAST TO 
EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  TWO WEAK SURFACE 
TROUGHS ALONG THE ITCZ...ONE NEAR 126W AND THE OTHER NEAR 
135W...ARE ALSO ANALYZED BUT CONTAIN ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS 
NEAR THEM.  NEITHER OF THESE ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER DEVELOP.

ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE DIFFERENCE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE 
FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N 
CENTRAL WATERS AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER NW MEXICO TO INDUCE NW 
WINDS OF 20 KT INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING THIS 
EVENING FROM 22N TO 28N...BECOMING SLIGHTLY STRONGER TUESDAY 
EVENING...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

A NEW...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA BY 48 HOURS WITH SW 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT 
AND NW 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND IT...AND BUILDING NW SWELL TO ALLOW 
FOR SEAS TO POSSIBLY REACH AS HIGH AS 17 FT PROPAGATING OUT 
AHEAD OF IT AS SUGGESTED BY WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE.

GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AND 
DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.  MEANWHILE...NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS 
WILL PULSATE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OFF AND ON 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND 
EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW.  

$$
LANDSEA/AGUIRRE