000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON NOV 21 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM KENNETH NEAR 12.3N 108.4W AT 21/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 740 MI S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS LOWERED TO 995 MB DURING THE NIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH HAS CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS NOTED BY ITS VERY WELL DEFINED TIGHTLY COILED BANDING FEATURES. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER OF KENNETH...AND ALSO FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 109W AND 110W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MARKING THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 13N109W TO 15N109W TO 16N106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N104W TO 14N105W TO 15N108W. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS KENNETH MOVING ON A WESTWARD TRACK AS IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS N. IT IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN AT THAT INTENSITY INTO WED EVENING. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHER COSTA RICA TO 08N92W TO 11N98W. IT THEN RESUMES NEAR 10N108W TO 9N115W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 9N122W TO 8N130W. IT THEN RESUMES AT 09N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 111W AND 115W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE WESTERN U.S. SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND CONTINUES SSW TO 25N115W...AND SW TO NEAR 21N124W. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE N WATERS AND ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EVIDENT FROM 32N118W TO 26N124W...AND DISSIPATING TO 26N138W. NW-N 20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT TO 127W AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SPILLS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE IN THE RANGE OF 10-14 FT IN A LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TRAIN. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA COVERING MAINLY THE AREA N OF 15N AND W OF 110W WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT QUICKLY EXITS THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE LARGE NW SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECAY TO 11 FT BY THAT TIME...AND TO NEAR 9 FT BY 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONE W OF CENTRAL MEXICO IS NOTED NEAR 16N100W WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WELL TO THE NE TO ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...SW TO NEAR 11N130W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGING IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KENNETH. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRES EXISTS S OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT PRESENT BETWEEN THE FRONT... THE HIGH...AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 130W ALONG WITH 8-10 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED IN THIS AREA ALONG 125W FROM 6N TO 12N WITH ONLY WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR IT. THE TRADE WINDS AREA IS FORECAST TO EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS TROPICAL STORM KENNETH DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA ALONG WITH BUILDING HIGH PRES ARRIVING BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. ENOUGH OF A PRES DIFFERENCE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS AND LOWER PRES OVER NW MEXICO TO INDUCE NW WINDS OF 20 KT INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HRS FROM 23N TO 28N...AND CONTINUING WITH LITTLE CHANGE INTO LATE ON TUE. A NEW AND EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY 48 HOURS WITH SW 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT...AND BUILDING NW SWELL TO ALLOW FOR SEAS TO POSSIBLY REACH AS HIGH AS 11 FT PROPAGATING OUT AHEAD OF IT AS SUGGESTED BY WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 18 HOURS. MEANWHILE ...NE-E 20 KT WINDS WILL PULSATE IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OFF AND ON DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MAINLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ AGUIRRE