000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN NOV 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E NEAR 10.4N 103.7W AT 20/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUN PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN MAINLY NE OF THE CENTER WHERE THE SCATTERED STRONG TYPE EXSIST OUT TO ABOUT 21O NM FROM THE CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. A DEVELOPING OUTER RAIN BAND IS DENOTED BY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N104W TO 12.5N106W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR TYPE CONVECTION ARE SW OF THE CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF 9N105W...AND 08N108W. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS ALONG WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WILL ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IS TRACKS TO THE W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 8N89W 1010 MB AND CONTINUES TO 9N96W WHERE IT ENDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AT 8N112W AND CONTINUES TO 9N120W TO 10N129W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 08N106W 08N113W. ...DISCUSSION... A RATHER VIGOROUS UPEPR LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N126W IS RAPIDLY SWINGING SE WITH A TROUGH EXETNDING FROM IT SW TO 32N127W TO 27N132W TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 26N140W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 31N AND W OF 127W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. TONIGHT PSUHING THE COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM NEAR 32N119W TO 27N126W...AND DISSIPATING TO 26N140W TONIGHT...AND TO E OF THE AREA WHERE IT DISSIPATES BY LATE MON NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE TO THE SE OF THE DEEP LAYER TO NEAR 19N. ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA IN PERSISTENT WLY FLOW OVER THE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 120W. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED INTO THE AREA FROM THE DEEP TROPICS S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SE OF A LINE FROM SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 14N125W AND EWD TO ACROSS MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR THE VICINTITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT TO NEAR 13N121W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPING TREND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1033 MB NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N150W EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N138W SE TO NEAR 23N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 16N AND W OF 118W. NW SWELLS ARE ALLOWING FOR SEAS OF 8-11 FT TO EXIST N OF 28N AND W OF 120W. A NEW SET OF LARGER NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS STARTING IN ABOUT 18-24 HRS. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PRECEDE THIS SWELL ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT WITH THIS FEATURE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUN MORNING REACHING FROM 30N126W TO 28N135W TO 29N140W BY 12 UTC SUN...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 30N122W TO 27N125W TO 26N140W BY 00 UTC MON. THE NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 OR 14 FT W OF FRONT TO 135W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 13N125W TO 9N129W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE N IS ALLOWING FOR NE 20 KT TRADES WITH SEAS OF 8 FT TO BE LOCATED FROM 11N-24N AND W OF 127W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL SHRINK SLIGHTER OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE PRES GRADIENT BREAKS DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE N. GAP WINDS...THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ALTHOUGH N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT PERSIST. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY 12 HRS...AND INTO 24 HRS. N WINDS OF 20 KT WILL THEN RESTART THROUGH THE GULF SUN NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201005 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN NOV 20 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E NEAR 10.4N 103.7W AT 20/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ33 FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN MAINLY NE OF THE CENTER WHERE THE SCATTERED STRONG TYPE EXISTS OUT TO ABOUT 21O NM FROM THE CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SE QUADRANT. A DEVELOPING OUTER RAIN BAND IS DENOTED BY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N104W TO 12.5N106W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR TYPE CONVECTION ARE SW OF THE CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF 9N105W...AND 08N108W. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS ALONG WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WILL ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS IS TRACKS TO THE W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 8N89W 1010 MB AND CONTINUES TO 9N96W WHERE IT ENDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE BEGINS AT 8N112W AND CONTINUES TO 9N120W TO 10N129W TO 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF 08N106W 08N113W. ...DISCUSSION... A RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LOW N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N126W IS RAPIDLY SWINGING SE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT SW TO 32N127W TO 27N132W TO BEYOND THE AREA AT 26N140W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS JUST N OF THE AREA ALONG 31N AND W OF 127W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND THE WESTERN U.S. TONIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM NEAR 32N119W TO 27N126W...AND DISSIPATING TO 26N140W TONIGHT...AND TO E OF THE AREA WHERE IT DISSIPATES BY LATE MON NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED TO THE NE TO THE SE OF THE DEEP LAYER TO NEAR 19N. ADDITIONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING INTO THE AREA IN PERSISTENT WLY FLOW OVER THE PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 19N W OF 120W. THIS MOISTURE IS BEING CHANNELED INTO THE AREA FROM THE DEEP TROPICS S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SE OF A LINE FROM SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 14N125W AND EWD TO ACROSS MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM IT TO NEAR 13N121W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPING TREND OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES OF 1033 MB NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N150W EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N138W SE TO NEAR 23N117W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF ABOUT 16N AND W OF 118W. NW SWELLS ARE ALLOWING FOR SEAS OF 8-11 FT TO EXIST N OF 28N AND W OF 120W. A NEW SET OF LARGER NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 16-18 SECONDS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS STARTING IN ABOUT 18-24 HRS. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PRECEDE THIS SWELL ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT WITH THIS FEATURE. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY SUN MORNING REACHING FROM 30N126W TO 28N135W TO 29N140W BY 12 UTC SUN...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 30N122W TO 27N125W TO 26N140W BY 00 UTC MON. THE NW SWELL WILL BUILD TO 13 OR 14 FT W OF FRONT TO 135W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 13N125W TO 9N129W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE N IS ALLOWING FOR NE 20 KT TRADES WITH SEAS OF 8 FT TO BE LOCATED FROM 11N-24N AND W OF 127W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL SHRINK SLIGHTER OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS AS THE PRES GRADIENT BREAKS DOWN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE N. GAP WINDS...THE PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION ALTHOUGH N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT PERSIST. THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT AND LESS THAN 8 FT BY 12 HRS...AND INTO 24 HRS. N WINDS OF 20 KT WILL THEN RESTART THROUGH THE GULF SUN NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE