000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192144
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT NOV 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E CENTERED NEAR 10.0N 101.0W 1006 
MB MOVING W 10 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUST TO 40 
KT AT 2100 UTC. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS FORECAST TO TO 
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT. MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL THE 
SYSTEM IS UNDER VERY CONDUCIVE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH LOW 
VERTICAL SHEAR SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES W OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH 10N85W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E 
10.0N101.0W TO 8N115W. INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 8N115W TO 
10N130W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 124W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W. A 
75-95 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 25N140W THEN WINDS 
INCREASE TO 100-105 KT AT 24N128W THE JETSTREAM CONTINUES NE TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW U.S.. BROKEN/OVERCAST CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE JETSTREAM FROM 120W THROUGH 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. A BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
THIRTEEN-E PROVIDING FOR GOOD OUTFLOW. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE AREA N OF 8N E OF 115W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
DRY AND STABLE AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS N OF 15N E OF 110W.

SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. LARGE NLY SWELLS 
PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA N OF 27N W OF 120W. THESE LARGE SWELLS 
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE S THROUGH COUPLE OF DAYS.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 12N127W TO 
9N131W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS.

THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NLY WINDS 
HAVE DECREASED THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  N WINDS OF 20 
KT WILL THEN RESTART THROUGH THE GULF SUN NIGHT.

$$
DGS