000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161000 CCA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N93W 1009 
MB TO 09N105W. W OF 105W THE ITCZ AXIS IS DISCONTINUOUS BETWEEN 
09N AND 10N WITH WEAK TROUGHS ANALYZED ALONG 118W AND 133W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...

SFC RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1030 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 32N136W TO 15N 
105W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER MOSAIC SHOWS POORLY DEFINED TROUGH / 
ITCZ AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS THE REGION ALONG 10N FROM THE COAST 
OF CENTRAL AMERICA TO W OF 140W...WITH MANY WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE 
WAVE PERTURBATIONS EVIDENT IN THE WIND FIELD. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS 
WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR AN 
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS W OF 130W...AND FROM 10N 
TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. 

LINGERING NW SWELL IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST 
OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION BETWEEN 118W AND 129W. 
THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND SHOULD BE BELOW 8 FT BY FRI. THE OVERALL TREND ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE DIMINISHING WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS DUE TO A 
LACK OF TIGHT PRES GRADIENTS FROM EITHER STRONG HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA OR UNUSUALLY LOW PRES IN THE MONSOON TROUGH / ITCZ. THE 
ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THU.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. GFS MODEL 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU NIGHT AND FRI...WITH PEAK 
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 40 KT EARLY FRI MORNING. THIS HIGH 
WIND EVENT WILL GENERATE SEAS TO 13-14 FT WHICH WILL SPREAD SW 
AS NE SWELL AND SUBSIDE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND. GFS MODEL ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF LOW 
LEVEL VORTICES NEAR THE WEST COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA THAT 
INTENSIFY AS THE MOVE DOWNSTREAM. HOWEVER...THE PERFORMANCE OF 
THE GFS REGARDING CYCLOGENESIS OF THESE FEATURES OVER THE PAST 
WEEK HAS BEEN VERY POOR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CONSIDER WINDS AND 
SEAS GENERATED BY THESE LOWS AS SPURIOUS CONTAMINATION.

$$
MUNDELL