000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151517
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE NOV 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N85W TO 1009 MB LOW 10N88W TO 8N93W. ITCZ 
AXIS FROM 8N93W 11N115W 10N125W 6N130W TO 9N137W. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 114W-117W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS 
FROM 133W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N131W TO 23N124W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING 
INTO THE AREA W OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MOSTLY WLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW IS E OF THE RIDGE WITH WINDS 40-50 KT INCREASING TO 70 KT 
OVER NE MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N E OF 130W.
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION SW OF MEXICO NEAR 13N99W.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 5N116W. W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 5N140W TO 10N121W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 
133W-136W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 110W. SURFACE WINDS ARE LESS THAN 
20 KT HOWEVER NLY SWELLS TO 9 FT ARE S OF 20N W OF 110W. A 1009 
MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N88W. A 
FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS 
ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 13N115W TO 
8N116W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH IS WITHIN 
90 NM E AND 60 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N-13N. ANOTHER 
TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 13N138W TO 9N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE AXIS FROM 11N-13N.

$$
DGS