000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N100W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 08N100W TO 11N115W TO 10N136W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

1032 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 38N141W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE 
TO NEAR 20N111W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH NE 
TRADES W OF 130W. NW SWELL TO 10 FT EXISTS OVER MOST OF THE AREA 
W OF 110W. COMBINED SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT OR LESS BY WED... 
EXCEPT IN THE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS W OF 130W.

ENHANCED NE GRADIENT WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN 
COSTA RICA WILL PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED.

MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA REMAINS MODERATELY 
ACTIVE. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL HELP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN TO 
SLOWLY SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A WEAK LOW PRES 
ANALYZED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N88W MAY SLOWLY BECOME 
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS..ENHANCING SW FLOW 
BUILDING SEAS TO 7-8 FT S OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W BY MIDWEEK.

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF HIGH WIND EPISODE IS EXPECTED IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THU NIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS W 
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO SRN 
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BUILD SEAS TO 10-15 FT FROM N SWELL 
IN NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.

$$
MUNDELL