000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150308 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE NOV 15 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 07.5N98W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 07.5N98W TO 10N110W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK DUE TO A TROUGH FROM 14N113W TO 08N113W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 9.5N116W TO 10N134W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK DUE TO A TROUGH FROM 14N134W TO 08N135W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 10N136W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE 1034 MB CENTERED NEAR 38N142W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 19N111W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADES FROM 11N TO 20N W OF 128W. THE AREA OF FRESH 20 KT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED. NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT CONTINUES TO SWEEP SE AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE. COMBINED SEAS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY WED AFTERNOON. ENHANCED NE GRADIENT WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA WILL PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED. THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACTIVE. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN...WITH THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORMATION OF A LOW PRES CENTER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH ENHANCED SW FLOW HELPING MAINTAIN SEAS TO 8 FT S OF THE TROUGH E OF 90W BY MIDWEEK. $$ AL