000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142106
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 08N100W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 08N100W TO 
11N110W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK DUE TO A TROUGH FROM 15N112W TO 
06N113W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 11N115W TO 08N128W TO 
10N132W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK DUE TO A TROUGH FROM 14N132W TO 
08N134W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 11N134W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS 
BETWEEN 120W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
210 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE 1034 MB CENTERED NEAR 38N142W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE TO NEAR 19N113W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
NE TRADES FROM 10N TO 26N W OF 128W AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST 
ASCAT PASS. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF TRADES 
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT WED.

NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT CONTINUES TO SWEEP SE AND 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. COMBINED SEAS WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY WED AFTERNOON.

ENHANCED NE GRADIENT WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN 
COSTA RICA WILL PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED.  

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACTIVE. 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW 
CARIBBEAN...WITH THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO. FORMATION OF A LOW PRES CENTER WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09N90W IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO 
DAYS WITH ENHANCED SW FLOW HELPING MAINTAIN SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 
THE TROUGH E OF 90W BY MIDWEEK.

$$
AL