000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141557
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 08N95W TO 08N100W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 
08N100W TO 11N110W...THEN RESUMING FROM 10N115W TO 09N128W TO 
10N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N 
TO 10N BETWEEN 132W TO 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 27N118W 1011 MB WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE  
TODAY AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG HIGH 
PRES 1033 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N143W HAS SFC RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 20N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS W OF THE SURFACE LOW...AS NOTED 
IN A 06 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW PRES IS 
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING E...THE N WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WED N 
OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AS THE HIGH PRES NOSES IN FROM THE 
WEST. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADES FROM 13N 
TO 23N W OF 130W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF TRADES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TUE.

NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT CONTINUES TO SWEEP SE AND 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. COMBINED SEAS W OF 110W WILL DECREASE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

ENHANCED NE GRADIENT WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN 
COSTA RICA WILL PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH WED.  

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS ACTIVE. 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW SUSTAINED 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN...WITH THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO. FORMATION OF A LOW PRES CENTER WITHIN THE 
MONSOON TROUGH OVER NEAR 09N90W IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 
DAYS WITH ENHANCED SW FLOW HELPING MAINTAIN SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 
THE TROUGH E OF 90W BY MIDWEEK.

$$
CHRISTENSEN