000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N95W. ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS 
FROM 07N95W TO 11N112W TO 10N122W TO 11N132W TO 09N140W. BREAKS 
IN ITCZ FROM TROUGHS ALONG 111W AND 132W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS NEAR 110W...121W...AND W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N118W 1010 MB WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE  
TODAY AS IT DRIFTS SE INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG HIGH 
PRES 1031 MB CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 38N145W HAS SFC RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 23N122W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS MAINTAINING 
MODERATE TO FRESH NW TO N WINDS W OF THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH FURTHER TODAY AS THE LOW DISSIPATES.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADES FROM 13N 
TO 23N W OF 133W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AREA OF TRADES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WINDS DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TUE.

NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FT CONTINUES TO SWEEP SE AND 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. COMBINED SEAS W OF 110W WILL DECREASE TO LESS 
THAN 8 FT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

ENHANCED NE GRADIENT WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN 
COSTA RICA WILL PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH TUE.  

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY 
ACTIVE...AND BACKGROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR 
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT PRODUCE WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE 
TROPICAL WAVES THAT WILL MOVE W AWAY FROM CENTRAL AMERICA. FRESH 
SW MONSOON FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$
MUNDELL