000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09.5N84W TO 07N97W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 07N97W TO 
11N117W TO 11N131W WHERE THERE IS A BREAK DUE TO A TROUGH FROM 
14N130W TO 09N132W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 11N134W TO 
08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 29N118W WITH AN 
ESTIMATED SURFACE PRES AROUND 1009 MB WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE 
THROUGH EARLY MON AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRES 1031 MB IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
37N146W HAS SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N117W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N WINDS W 
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT MON AS THE 
LOW DISSIPATES. 

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN 
THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH 20 KT TRADES FROM 
FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 129W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL MAINTAIN 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT CONTINUES TO SWEEP SE AS 
IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THE SWELL WILL COVER THE AREA W 
OF 110W BY 24 HOURS WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 10 FT.

ENHANCED GRADIENT WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN 
COSTA RICA WILL PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH TUE.  

THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY 
ACTIVE...AND BACKGROUND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR 
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH SW 
MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE FAR SE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

$$
AL