000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131541 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN NOV 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N81W TO 07N95W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 07N95W TO 11N127W...THEN RESUMES FROM 08N136W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 130W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... DEEP LAYER LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 30N118W WITH AN ESTIMATED SURFACE PRES AROUND 1007 MB WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0440 UTC AND A JASON 1 ALTIMETER PASS FROM 0830 UTC SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ON THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...DOWN FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS NOTED NEAR THE LOW IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. STATIONARY SURFACE HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA NEAR 37N149W IS ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN THE AREA FROM THE ITCZ TO NEAR 20N AND W OF 130W. NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 13 FT AND PERIODS TO 10 TO 14 SECONDS CONTINUES TO SWEEP SE...AND WILL COVER THE AREA W OF 110W BY 24 HOURS. S OF 03N AND W OF 120W...ASCAT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND SE SWELL. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. ENHANCED GRADIENT WIND FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE EFFECTS OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN COSTA RICA WILL PRODUCE WINDS TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH TUE. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS S OF PANAMA HAS RESULTED IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THIS AREA. BACKGROUND FLOW WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SLOWLY SPREADING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORMATION OF A BROAD LOW PRES CENTER WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH ENHANCED SW MONSOONAL FLOW HELPING BUILD SEAS TO 8-9 FT IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. $$ CHRISTENSEN