000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120905
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N94W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 07N94W TO 
10N123W...THEN RESUMES FROM 10N132W TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED N OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
33N127W WITH FRONT TRAILING ACROSS NW PORTION FROM 30N121W TO 
24N126W...THEN AS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY TO 20N140W. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SHOWS STRONG 25-30 KT CYCLONIC WINDS IN SW QUADRANT OF THE 
LOW...N OF 28N FROM 125W TO NEAR 128W. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N 
FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW PRES AS IT MIGRATES INTO NORTHERN 
BAJA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 
KT N OF 28N IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED LOW 
PRES SYSTEM TODAY THEN DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT SUN. LARGE NW SWELL 
IS SWEEPING INTO THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 21 FT COVERING 
THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THE SWELL WILL DECAY GRADUALLY AS IT 
SPREADS SE...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY SUN NIGHT.

ASCAT PASSING DIRECTLY OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 0316 UTC 
INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 30 KT. AS A RESULT THE GALE WARNING 
FOR THE AREA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. GFS MODEL FORECAST INDICATES 
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20-30 KT FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO...AND 
DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT EARLY SUN MORNING.  NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO PROPAGATE SW...REACHING TO 110W BY SUN AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR EASTERN EXTENSION
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA OVER THE NEXT 2 
TO 3 DAYS. GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BOTH IN
THE LOCATION AND SLOW GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW. EXPECT WIND
AND SEAS TO BE MOST AFFECTED N OF 04N E OF 83W THROUGH MON. ALSO
DIURNAL PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED
DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM DRAINAGE EFFECTS 
INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

$$
MUNDELL