000 AXPZ20 KNHC 120311 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT NOV 12 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08.5N84W TO 06.5N93W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 06.5N93W TO 11N118W...THEN RESUMES FROM 09N135W TO 11N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... LOW PRESS 1005 MB IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N127W WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 30N122W TO 20N140W. LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS PREVAIL N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRES AS IT MIGRATES INTO NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LARGE NW SWELL IS SWEEPING INTO THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 20 FT COVERING THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THE SWELL WILL DECAY GRADUALLY AS IT SPREADS SE...COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 110W BY SUN NIGHT. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE VEERED AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE WINDS FLOWING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT EVENING...WITH NE SWELL CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SW...REACHING 110W BY SUN AFTERNOON. GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 28N AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SUN MORNING. GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT SOME PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM DRAINAGE EFFECTS INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. $$ AL