000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112113
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 07N101W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 07N101W TO 
11N126W...THEN RESUMES FROM 11N130W TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED. 

...DISCUSSION...

LOW PRESS 1004 MB IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N130W 
WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM 
30N123W TO 20N140W. LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATES FRESH W TO NW 
WINDS PREVAIL N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW TO N 
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRES AS IT MIGRATES INTO NORTHERN BAJA 
THROUGH MON. 

LARGE NW SWELL IS SWEEPING INTO THE AREA WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 
20 FT COVERING THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THE SWELL WILL DECAY 
GRADUALLY AS IT SPREADS SE...COVERING THE AREA W OF 110W BY 72 
HOURS. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL START TO VEER AS 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL START TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE 
WINDS FLOWING INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT. WINDS WILL 
FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT EVENING...WITH NE SWELL 
CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE SW...REACHING 110W BY SUN AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONT SAT AND SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 
KT BY SUN MORNING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT SOME PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM DRAINAGE 
EFFECTS INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
AL