000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N98W...TRANSITIONS TO AN 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 07N98W TO 08N112W TO 12N125W...AND FROM 11N130W 
TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

A VIGOROUS MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 36N130W IS MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN 
ASSOCIATED 1002 MB SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 25N132W 
IS WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES E TO SE TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SUN. A COLD FRONT TRAILS FROM THE 
30N126W TO 23N140W. 

LARGE NW SWELL IS SWEEPING INTO THE AREA NW OF LINE FROM 30N122W 
TO 17N140W. A 0700 UTC ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS 8 TO 17 FT IN 
THIS AREA. CONSENSUS OF WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS REACHING AS 
HIGH AS 20 FT N OF 29N W OF 135W IN NW SWELL THROUGH LATE TODAY. 
THE SWELL WILL DECAY GRADUALLY AS IT SPREADS SE...COVERING THE 
AREA W OF 110W BY 72 HOURS. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 
20N...WITH NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT FOLLOWING THE FRONT. FRESH TO 
STRONG NW TO N FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRES AS IT MIGRATES INTO 
NORTHERN BAJA THROUGH MON. 

FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DISRUPTED TRADE WIND 
FLOW S OF 20N W OF 120W AND TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 
KT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM MINATITLAN MMMT 
AND COATZACOALCOS ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SHOWED N WINDS INTO THE GAP UP TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 40 KT. SIMILARLY REPORTS FROM IXTEPEC AND SALINA CRUZ ON THE 
SOUTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS SHOWED SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 
25 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KT...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS 
AT IXTEPEC WERE DURING THE LATE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO 
DATA DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING...THE 
LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRONG GALE CONDITIONS THROUGH 
THE CENTER OF THE GULF THIS MORNING. SEAS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 17 
FT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN A 07 UTC ALTIMETER PASS THAT SHOWED SEAS 
TO 14 FT JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MAIN SWATH OF GAP WINDS. WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS THE DENSER AIR N OF THE AREA MODERATES 
AND GAP FLOW ABATES. HOWEVER NE TO E SWELL OF 8 TO 11 FT 
GENERATED FROM THE GAP FLOW WILL PUSH W AS FAR AS 105W THROUGH 
SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EXPECT SW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF 
THE COLD FRONT SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT SOME PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM DRAINAGE 
EFFECTS INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN