000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111006
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N98W...TRANSITIONS TO AN 
ITCZ AXIS FROM 07N98W TO 08N112W TO 12N125W...AND FROM 11N130W 
TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

1000 MB LOW PRES NEAR 37N134W AND STRONG HIGH PRES 1034 MB NEAR 
37N155W CREATING AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN TIGHT PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY IN AREA OF GALES 
AND CONSEQUENTLY VERY HIGH SEAS ARE BEING GENERATED JUST N OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N 
129W TO 23N140W. LARGE NW SWELL WILL SWEEP INTO NW PORTION OF THE
AREA TODAY AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO MORE THAN 20 FT N OF 27N W OF 
130W. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE SWELL TRAIN SPREADS SE 
TO COVER A LARGE AREA FROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE DEEP 
TROPICS ALONG 140W BY SAT NIGHT. THE LOW AND ITS OCCLUDED FRONT 
WILL DIVE SE AS THE UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD 
INTO THE SW UNITED STATES...AND CROSS 30N NEAR 122W EARLY SUN.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DISRUPTED TRADE WIND FLOW W OF 120W AND 
TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 
8 FT BY TONIGHT IN THE TRADE WIND BELT AS A RESULT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES IN WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
IS FUNNELING N WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND PRODUCING GALE 
FORCE WINDS TO 45 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS PEAK WINDS OF 50 DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BUT 
THERE ARE NO SHIP OBSERVATIONS OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES TO CONFIRM
WHETHER STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRED OR NOT EARLIER TONIGHT.WINDS 
WILL DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE EARLY SAT...THEN WEAKEN BELOW 20 
KT BY SAT EVENING. A LARGE AREA OF NE SWELL WILL GENERATED FROM 
THE GAP FLOW...REACHING AS FAR W AS 108W BY SAT NIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT SOME PULSES TO 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM DRAINAGE 
EFFECTS INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN.

$$
MUNDELL